Link to GitHub repository.

This week, I began manipulating my data in ways that allow me to derive useful insights from it. I focused on creating “proof of concepts,” where I figure out how to use R to manipulate my data for statistical inference and transform it into visualizations. As I continue, I will be able to replicate the architectures of these “proof of concepts” and apply them to different components of my project.

Mapping

I am very interested in spatial data and am hoping to incorporate maps into my project. I began by downloading river basin shapefiles from the World Bank. It took me several different tries (and packages) before I figured out that readOGR(), from the rgdal package, was the best option, despite the fact that it produces a strange output: a PolygonsDataFrame. Wrestling with this strange format became more important when creating my demo map.

Initially, I used the get_map() function and the ggmap package to create a static map of the world’s river basins. However, I was unhappy with this approach because it produced a low-resolution product, and it didn’t allow my audience to interact with the map. I used the leaflet library to resolve both of these problems. I decided to create a demo plot of the world’s river basins, color filled by their relative level of water conflict since 1948 (when the OSU dataset begins).

# Created a tibble with a list of events. I chose to filter for strings that
# include words related to conflict. I need to refine my filtering approach, but
# using these four terms works as an initial proxy for my demo case. To be able
# to merge this data with my polygons, I produce a per-basin count of
# conflict-related events.

events_n <- joined %>%
  filter(str_detect(event_summary, c("conflict", "war", "violence", "military"))) %>%
  distinct(date, .keep_all = TRUE) %>%
  group_by(basin_name) %>%
  count() %>%
  rename(num_events = n)

# I then merge these counts with my polygon data. Leaflet throws an error if
# the variable column includes NA values, so I replaced all NA values.

basins_geometry@data <- merge(basins_geometry@data, events_n, by.x = "NAME", by.y = "basin_name") %>%
  replace_na(list(num_events = 0))

# Defining my leaflet color bin:

binpal <- colorBin("Blues", basins_geometry$num_events, 9, pretty = FALSE)

# Created my Leaflet map, using a simple CartoDB basemap. Zoomed out and
# centered the map, added my polygons, and changed their color based on their
# relative number of events. Added a legend.

leaflet() %>% 
  addProviderTiles(providers$CartoDB.Positron) %>% 
  setView(lng = 0, lat=30,zoom=1.3) %>% 
  addPolygons(data = basins_geometry, stroke = FALSE, smoothFactor = 0.2, 
              fillOpacity = .6, color = ~binpal(num_events)) %>%
    addLegend("bottomright", pal = binpal, values = basins_geometry$num_events, 
              title = "# of water conflict events since 1948", opacity = 1)
# To do: Need to figure out how to add static or hover labels to the river basin
# polygons.

Case Study: Jordan River Basin

I plan to present both aggregate data and specific case studies in my project. To check data quality and test my ability to manipulate the OSU data to produce basin-specific insights, I filtered for water conflict events in the Jordan River Basin.

jord <- joined %>%
  filter(bcode == "JORD") %>%
  filter(str_detect(event_summary, c("conflict", "war", "violence", "military"))) %>%
  arrange(date) %>%
  distinct(date, .keep_all = TRUE)

Then, I created a frequency histogram of these events over time. The relatively calm period in the 1970s and 80s is consistent with a period of stagnation that I’ve written about previously for other research projects.

ggplot(jord, aes(year)) + 
  geom_histogram(bins = 60) + 
  labs(title = "Water Conflict Events in the Jordan River Basin, 1948-2008", 
       caption = "Source: OSU Program in Water Conflict Management and Transformation") + 
  xlab("Year") + ylab("Count") + 
  theme_classic()



Next, I created a table that displays the water conflict events in the basin. After looking at the events being returned, it seems like a more accurate title might be “Water Conflict and Diplomacy Events”, since a number of the events in the OSU database are not so much violent conflict as violent rhetoric and/or negotiations to avoid conflict. I have conducted research on the Jordan River Basin for over a year now; in my opinion, these events appropriately characterize the water conflict events that occured over this period. This reflects positively on the quality of the OSU dataset.

jord_gt <- jord %>%
  select(date, dyad_code, event_summary)

gt(jord_gt) %>%
  tab_header("Water Conflict Events in the Jordan River Basin, 1948-2008") %>%
  cols_label(date = "Date", 
             dyad_code = "Conflict Dyad", 
             event_summary = "Event Summary")

Water Conflict Events in the Jordan River Basin, 1948-2008
Date Conflict Dyad Event Summary
1956-04-20 ISR_SYR Egypt, Syria, and Jordan threaten war if Israel resumes Jordan River Project
1960-11-21 ISR_JOR Israel warns Jordan against diverting river tributaries
1961-11-06 ISR_SYR Syria warns Israel fire on any attempt to divert Jordan River
1965-01-23 ISR_LBN Israel warns Lebanon Lebanese have no right usurp water belonging to Israel
1965-08-05 JOR_INT Jordan awards contracts for building of Ghor Canals
1968-09-26 JOR_SAU Iraq, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Syria agree joint military command on Jordan river front
1990-07-31 ISR_SYR Major-General Hekmat Shehabi, Syria's armed forces chief of staff, said Israel planned to occupy more lands to reach oilfields and water resources in the Arab world. Shehabi urged Arab states to go on a "real confrontation with the enemy and to seek at the same time to achieve just peace in the region. The enemy's expansionist plans are aimd at the Arab nation from the oilfields to the water resources. There is a real danger as long as our enemy continues to reject peace and receive more Jewish immigrants," Shehabi said. "We have a just cause and we will not give any concessions on our rights. We are seeking to achieve these rights through all legitimate and possible means, including the diplomatic action and the military option if it is imposed on us." Shehabi accused Israel of expansionist aims during an interview with the Baath Daily.
1991-03-21 EGY_IRQ Egypt's ambassador to the United States, M. Samir Ahmed announced that bickering over water among Israel, Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey and Iraq could lead to new tensions, if not armed conflict. The Egyptian envoy was among officials from more than a dozen countries attending a U.S. government-backed "world water summit". "Israel is badly in need of more water. So is Syria. So is Jordan. So is Lebanon. What are they going to do about it? There are going to be water-induced disputes -- tension at least, if not war," Ahmed told Reuters on March 21.
1991-08-23 ISR_TUR Turkey President Ozal sent a special letter to US President Bush notifying him that he cannot invite Israel to regional water conference to be held in Turkey in November, due to objections presented by Syria & other Arab nations. The US expressed disappointment over this decision. Israeli sources have said that Ozal's surrender to Syrian pressure is viewed as an unfriendly act toward Israel & one that is hard to undertand in view of international efforts to promote international peace conference. When pressed by the US, Turkish President avoided a direct reply, saying that if the US manages to convene regional peace conference in October, he might reconsider inviting Israel to the conference.
1991-12-23 JOR_LBN Jordanian officials announced Jordanian hopes on December 23 that the Middle East peace talks will provide an opportunity to settle long-disputed water rights with Lebanon, Israel and Syria on the Jordan river basin. Arab states, including Jordan, are due to hold multilateral talks with Israel in Moscow at the end of January and water will be high on the agenda. "We are talking about water rights to sustain agricultural practices, industrial and domestic needs in Jordan and a clean environment," Water Minister Samir Kawar told Reuters when asked how much water his country hoped to get from a peace treaty. Jordan, a desert nation of 3.4 million people says it is facing a severe water crisis due to drought, a population boom, the needs of farmers and the actions of water-hungry neighbours Syria and Israel.
1992-03-21 ISR_TUR Turkey hasn't answered the question concerning the sale of water to Israel. Turkey says anyone can now buy water from Turkey and that there will be no water wars.
1992-11-27 ISR_JOR Israel and Jordan announced they would hold bilateral discussions on water problems in the U.S. next month, the Jordanian Water and Irrigation minister Samir Kawar said. ''There will be a bilateral on water in the U.S. in December,'' he told Reuters in an interview while attending a water and environment forum here. A multilateral conference in Vienna in May looked at the problems of sharing water between the Palestinians of the Occupied Territories and Israel. ''There will be a bilateral on water in Washington in December,'' he told Reuters in an interview while attending a water and environment forum here. ''After the national issue (of Palestinians), water is the most important issue between us,'' he said.
1993-10-15 JOR_SYR Regarding Jordan's view of the magnitude of problem and how it recommends handling it, specifically with Israel since water issue will be the cause of any conflict that might erupt in region, Jordan King Husayn said "water is indeed one of most serious/important issues. We can address the urgent issue within a framework of genuine peace. Therefore, we hope other parties will quickly join us to regain rights and help make peace, particularly with Syria and Lebanon. We hope they regain rights in near future."
1994-06-07 JOR_SYR Syria has warned Jordan against holding bilateral negotiations with Israel on the water question, since it is vital issue that concerns Syria as well. Jordan Deputy Prime Minister al-Tall, visited Damascus recently & held direct talks with Syria President al-Asad. See event F690.
1995-06-23 ISR_SYR Syria government yesterday dashed hopes of an early break-through in peace talks with Israel, which are set to resume in Washington next Tuesday, by descibing the gap between the 2 sides as vast. Beyond security impasse lie sharp differences over timetable for returning the Golan Heights & historical dispute over Golan's rich water resources. The water dispute, part of the fuel for the 1967 war, has yet to be addressed, although right-wing opposition Likud party in Israel cites it as principal reason for not surrending the Golan. Khaddam, "nominal number 2 to President al-Asad in Syria regime," said flatly that the water that springs from Syria land is Syria's water. A senior Arab official close to negotiations predicted that no agreement will be reached without agreement on water from both sides. The real debate is about water, not security.
1995-07-05 ISR_PLO Israel Agriculture Minister Tzur warned that the "Israel water economy would face disaster" if Israel relinquished control over water sources in the West Bank. See event F1053A.
1995-10-31 ISR_PLO Israel Foreign Minister Peres on Tuesday described the Middle East & North Africa (MENA) economic summit as a great contributor to the concept of regional economic cooperation & development. According to Peres, geographic proximity among 3 warrant such a relationship (i.e., "economic confederation"). Take electricity, he said, you cannot keep power from crossing borders. He mentioned water, etc. as other areas where economic confederation makes more sense. Peres described Jordan-Israel relations as developing in a satisfying manner from the viewpoint of Israel & Jordan. "It is more than just an agreement between 2 parties," he said, referring to countries' joint efforts to raise money for water projects stipulated in the treaty & other moves toward bilateral & regional cooperation.
1995-12-15 LBN_SYR Pending results of talks between Syria President al-Asasd & US Secretary Christopher, Lebanon Foreign Minister Buwayz said that a statement by Israel Prime Minister Peres contained no practical proposals. Before Warren arrived in Damascus to work on positive signs in region to revive Syria-Israel negotiations, Buwayz said Lebanon authorities are the only party qualified to negotiate & discuss Lebanon's rights in peace process. Thus, Israel Prime Minister Peres' refuting a statement (i.e., that a call was made to Syria to negotiate water issues & economic ties on Lebanon's behalf) is manuver intended to create conflict & a race between Lebanon & Syria.
1996-05-14 ISR_JOR Jordan irrigation Minister Qa-war, who visited Israel the day before yesterday, denied that there is any coolness or disagreement in Jordan-Israel relations. He said that he hasn't heard of anything of that kIndia But Israel water official Mitsur, answering a question about the results of water talks between him & the Jordan minister, told Israel radio: What water are you talking about? We have no water to give anyone, since we pledged to give Jordan an agreed quantity of 30 million cubic meters (mcm). We have now to work jointly to discover new water resources to share between the two sides. The Jerusalem Post: Tsur and Qa'war meet in Amman to discuss dam along Yarmuk River. After meeting, Tsur suggests that the two sides work together to find new water sources for both countries to share since Israel has no additional water to provide Jordan beyond the 30 mcm already provided.
1996-07-28 ISR_JOR Jordan Minister of Information al-Mu'ashshir was quoted by Jordan News Agency, Pentra, Saturday as telling high school students that Jordan is still awaiting implementation of Israel's commitment to pump water to Jordan despite lapse of 1&1/2 years from signing of peace treaty in October 1994. The treaty called on plan for water supply to Jordan within 1 year, yet the joint committee has not forwarded to respective governments any plan.
1996-08-23 ISR_JOR Eitan criticizes Jordan-Syrian dam proposal on Yarmuk stating that it conflicts with regional water agreements, including those in the Jordan-Israel peace agreement. Eitan states that if Israel benefits from the dam, Israel would not oppose. Eitan speculates, however, that Syria will not be willing to share water with Israel. He threatened a reconsideration of Israel's water agreement with Jordan if Israel does not benefit from the dam.
1996-10-08 ISR_JOR Jordan Prince Hasan spoke during his visit to the Jordan Times on 10/8, warning that the region would be facing grim prospects if peace process collapses. He said that peace treaty Jordan signed with Israel in October 1994 does offer the promise of valuable peace dividends, citing water & other development projects that were discussed but whose implementation was delayed.
1997-08-23 ISR_JOR Israel government of Netanyahu, which did all it could to block progress in Palestine negotiations, now intends to make a similar move on Syrian negotiation track, referring to Israel's intention to build a dam in Syria-occupied territory. Sharon Israel Infrastructure Minister justifies project with technical reasons that have no political motives. Changing the site of the dam from one in undisputed area, as decided by previous Israel government, to a site in Syria-occupied territory is a strong declaration that Netanyahu government refuses to heed terms of reference of Middle East peace process, including Security Council Resolution 242. Article reports that Netanyahu government is now responsible for repercussions of pursuing Sharon's plans and warn Israel against playing with hidden fire under ashes of Arab-Israel conflict.
1997-08-24 ISR_SYR Israel confirmed Sunday it will build a reservoir dam on the al-Yarmuk River in territory claimed by Syria, in cooperation with Jordan, at the recommendation of Infrastructure Minister Sharon. Sharon spokesman Gissin told AFP that "Israel, Jordan, and foreign companies are doing the preliminary work at the site and then will begin construction." Syria has demanded the return of the Golan Heights as the price for peace with Israel. Israel is committed to building a dam under Jordan-Israel 1994 treaty, but the site was not specified in the treaty. Jordan officials have warned that their government could renounce its participation in the project and demand reimbursement of funds already invested to prepare previous site if Sharon's plan is put to action, the Haaretz newspaper reported. Reacting to the Haaretz report, a Jordan government spokesman said Saturday that Jordan was not involved in choosing a site for the dam and has never negotiatied/concluded any accord aimed at putting pressure on Israel-Syria negotiations. Gissin insisted that the site was decided in talks with Jordan in the past year, taking only hydrological and technological considerations to mind, as outlined in agreements.
1997-08-30 ISR_SYR Al-Ahram warns in an editorial today that United States policy on peace process could lose its rationale if United States administration tries to abandon the balance between what it wants to apply to Palestinians and what it wants to apply to Israelis. Editorial criticizes inadequate reaction to Israel announcing intention to build dam on Yarmuk River in occupied Syria Golan Heights and notes that it merely opposed the building of the dam because it will be built on "disputed land."
1997-12-02 ISR_PLO Settlers and occupation forces continued to work on road linking Efrat settlement with Hwy. 60 and Daniyel settlement. Darwish, information spokesman of Popular Land Defense Committee (PLDC) in Bethlehem Governate, told al-Ayyam that these settlement incursions will destroy 400 donums of land planted with vines and almond trees. Daniyel settlers also established compound for animals outside fences surrounding settlement, while settlement guards threatened land owners, citizens, and members of PLDC who tried to enter the area to work on their land and who staged protest outside settlment. Protestors went to Palestine Civil Liasion offices and lodged complaint about Israeli measures and incursions. Citizens also expelled from land in Ra's Salah and al-'Awarid areas on November 30. In another development, citizens of al-Jab'ah village lodged a complaint with Palestine Civil Liason office over incusrions by Bat 'Ayin settlers. They protested that settlers were pumping brackish and polluted water into al-Jab'ah valley.
1998-04-28 ISR_JOR Israel plans to change the course of the upper Jordan River water which flows into Lake Tiberias have recently been exposed. Plan calls for diverting the water course before reaching Lake Tiberias. Al-Dustur has put the spotlight on the plan and its effects on Jordan and Palestine. Jordan Water and Irrigation Minister Haddadin said we are prepared to assist in settling problems of the Jordan River. We would have rejected the plan anyway had it been suggested to us, he added. Engineer and deputy head of the Palestine Water Authority, Ka'wash, said diverting river's course means pre-determining negotiations and depriving Palestine from benefiting from its share of the Jordan River. Palestine is faced with a major water shortage. Ka'wash said we consider this a declaration of a new war on water proclaimed by Israel. The Likud governmentt is rejecting all kind of negotiations, while Palestine clings to its rights. All Israel measures are illegal, as no basin-party can undertake harmful unilateral action under international law.
1998-06-17 ISR_SYR Syria Irrigation Minister Madani has announced that Syria rejects a proposal to establish a water council for Midle East and North Africa and that Syria is still at war with Israel, which will become a member of proposed council. Madani also said Turkey has failed to block the agreement or to give it the title "Border-crossing waters and market waters." Madani pointed out that his country supports establishment of Arab Company to draw up long-term water strategies and defend Arabs' rights in their waters that are being plundered by Israel, noting that Israel plunders 300 million cubic meters of Golan's water a year and steals water from Palestine territories and southern Lebanon.
1998-11-24 ISR_JOR Jordan's Foreign Minister denies that Jordanian-Syrian decision to develop early warning system for Yarmuk water quality runs counter to the terms of the Israeli-Jordanian peace agreement.
1998-11-25 JOR_SYR Jordan Information Minister Judah on November 25 said Jordan would like to maintain normal relations with Syria and called on Damascus to name an envoy to fill post of ambassador, which has been vacant since 1990. The minister described recent water agreement between Amman and Damascus as a "good step" towards enhancing cooperation between the countries, referring to the accord to construct a multi-million dinar dam on the Yarmuk River.
1999-03-16 ISR_JOR In a new proactive step toward Jordan the Israeli government announced its intention to reduce the amount of water it will pump to Jordan next summer for 50 million cubic meters mcm to 20 mcm. This means a 60% cut in the amount of water stipulated in signed agreements. Israel excuse is a lack of rainfall this year & low amount of water flowing from al-Yarmuk River into Lake Tiberias.
1999-08-21 ISR_JOR Following Israel's approval of Jordan's proposal to directly take its water share from the Yarmuk River instead of storing it in Lake Tiberias, joint technical teams are expected to meet this week to start acting on the request, sources said Friday. Both planned to meet last week, but talks were postponed at the request of the Jewish state, whose "acceptance aims to show its goodwill towards Jordan," sources told Jordan Times.
2002-10-09 ISR_USA The US has reportedly put forward a two-stage compromise plan to defuse the dispute between Israel and Lebanon over the latter's intention to pump water from the Wazzani River, a tributary of the Jordan River.
2006-11-24 JOR_ISR Jordanian and Israeli mayors signed a memorandum of understanding to cooperate on shared water issues. The agreement forms part of the Good Water Neighbours (GWN) project, established by EcoPeace/FoEME in 2001 to raise awareness of the shared water problems of Palestinians, Jordanians and Israelis. The goal of the project is to develop dialogue and cooperation on sustainable water management.
NA ISR_LBN The US has reportedly put forward a two-stage compromise plan to defuse the dispute between Israel and Lebanon over the latter's intention to pump water from the Wazzani River, a tributary of the Jordan River.


Future Plans

Next week, I hope to expand the depth and breadth of my analysis of the Jordan River Basin and develop case studies of the Mekong, Indus, and Colorado river basins. I chose these basins in part based on insights derived from the rough Leaflet map in this milestone: Based on my background knowledge of transboundary river basins and the map, I selected cases that are roughly comparable demographically and geopolitically, but which have wide variability in the number of water conflicts they have experienced.